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tv   First Business  KICU  September 18, 2013 4:00am-4:31am PDT

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ben bernanke takes center stage today. how wall street is preparing for what the fed chair is about to say... in today's cover story.....inside the surprising politics of yelp reviews.... plus... what's really behind the rise of the activist investor.... and....let the shopping season begin....why christmas is coming, even earlier this year.. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning! it's wednesday, september 18th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: a buy blitz ahead of fed. the dow is up for the 3 session in a row as the federal reserve gears up for it's message to wall street.
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tuesday the blue chips rallied 35 points, the nasdaq up 28, and the s&p 500 closed above 1,700. gold fell 8 dollars, oil lost $1.11. electronic arts has named andrew wilson a long time insider at the company as it's new ceo. officials are calling last week's fire along the jersey shore boardwalk -- an accident. and a new poll shows-- just 27% of u.s. adults picked the correct definition of quantitative easing. larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us now. larry, what will you specifically be listening for with the fed announcement today? > >i think the most important thing is a zero interest rate policy pledge. that's something that bernanke's gonna talk about for 2016. right now fed front end rates are about a quarter percent. the market's expecting him to say by 2016, if the economy has healed, we're
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gonna see 2/12% maybe less in fed fund rates. so i think that's key to listen to. > >it's turning into an active week for software stocks. we had news on microsoft yesterday and adobe came out with earnings after the close--those look good. and plus oracle reports tonight. what are you watching? what are you thinking? > >what i'm thinking is that our economy is healing. no matter what you hear in the press. you see what happened with adobe last night and the microsoft buyback---they think their stock's too cheap? they're doing well. we're taking baby steps. i think it's an area that's been beaten down for a while especially in software. maybe it's time to start dabbling. > >we are seeing a relaxing of oil futures. what do you think that's telling us? > >we've dropped $4 in a week and a lot of that is risk premium. some of it is seasonal demand and some of it is---we heard just yesterday that libya opened up it's output. overall
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the trend is higher, we're just getting a little bit of relief. maybe we'll see 102, 103 but it's hard for me to believe that we'll get below $100 a barrel. > >thank you larry. > >you're welcome. the horrific shooting at the washington navy yard is putting a new focus on safety in the work place. 13 people were killed when a shooter let loose a barage of bullets. it happened at a secure military facility near the capitol. the gunman was a navy reservist who was one of the first reponsders to the 9/11 attacks and soon after is said to have suffered from mental illness. we turned to human resources attorney chuck krugel -- on how to stay safe at work. "you could possibly have metal detectors and a do-not-enter list so that he would've had to stay in a restricted area until he went through a metal detector check." krugel adds that employer background checks would reveal convictions but not arrests. in colorado -- residents
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reeling from massive flooding-- now face a financial fallout. usa today reports-- less than 25% of homeowners in the water soaked area have flood insurance. in some sections its less than 10% who have proper coverage. the colorado springs fire department warns-- 10 years of flash floods may lie ahead due to last summers wildfires that destroyed natural forest barriers. the house is expected to vote today on reforms to the nation's food stamp program in the remaining half of the farm bill. the vote on the docket calls for cutting $40 billion dollars from food stamps during the next 10 years. supporters say they aim to curb abuse and waste within the program. as a challenge--- the ceo of panera bread is living on food stamps-- amounting to $4.50 per day to raise awareness. ron shaich blogs the budget is leaving him very hungry. to mark the second aniversary of occupy wall street hundreds of protestors took to the streets of new york yesterday to support the financial transactions tax. its better
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known as the robin hood tax, it proposes a 50-cent tax for every 100-dollars of specific kinds of financial transactions. the group has two hundred million supporters including warren buffett and bill gates. new data from the census bureau contains some troubling news...46-and-a-half million americans are living in poverty. incomes dropped significantly during the great recession and are still 8% below levels in 2007. earners in the top 5% have seen income gains of 67% the u-s department of labor extends minimum wage and overtime protections to 2- million home healthcare workers. starting in january of 20-15 "direct care" workers will be covered by the fair labor standards act. congressional republicans had argued against the change saying it could mean a reduction in hours for these workers. the obama administration says the move protects employees rights to decent wages. holiday sales predictions aren't too consumers remain cautious about there gift
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giving budgets. shoppertrack analysis projects holiday sales will rise 2.4% this year. down from 3% last year.add to that-- there less time to shop between black friday and christmas ..." there are fewer shopping days this year, 25, compared to 31 this year. that will impact the consumer because the promotions will start earlier we think, and probably be more aggressive, so, retailers have fewer days to prepare and make up for the whole year." shoppertrack also predicts more stores will be open on the thanksgiving holiday this year and promotions will start earlier than usual the uptick in mortgage rates has "not" blunted the confidence of home builders. confidence is at an eight year high according to the national association of home builders. the latest monthly survey places the confidence number at 58 -- a number above 50 signals builders are optimistic. september's
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survey results mark the fourth straight months of gains. however, the head of the home builders association points out that tightened credit and shrinking supplies of open lots could cool momentum. boeing's first test flight of its new 787-9 dreamliner went off without a hitch yesterday. this latest version of the dreamliner is 20 feet longer and can carry 40 more passengers than the 787-8 version.the successful flight could help boeing work past the seemingly endless struggles of the 787-8 dreamliner. those problems culminated in a rare faa emergency order that grounded the fleet in january to fix battery malfunctions. boeing stock hit a record high yesterday. in europe -- the auto market has a bumpy road ahead...despite recent strides in the euro zone recovery, auto sales remain weak. new car registrations dropped again in august -- this time by 5% compared to last year. britain was the only market where sales rose. anaylsts expect cars sales will continue to be sluggish. general motors is taking on tesla. the automaker is in the midst of developing a rival to tesla's electric says it's verizon will be able
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last for 200 miles on a charge and will start at 30 thousand dollars. however gm execs says the battery technology is still too expensive, and cannot pinpoint when g-m will be able to release its car. microsoft surprised investors ahead of tomorrow's shareholder meeting. the company is planing a $40 billion dollar stock buyback and raising its quarterly dividend, by 22%.... more than analysts had expected. its the latest of numerous changes at the software company, including the upcoming departure of ceo steve ballmer and the acquisition of nokia. in today's cover story---the battle over your right to write a negative review of a business versus the businesses right to challenge your critique. who wins, who loses and who pays? we check online reviews of restaurants, dentists, car mechanics--everything in the marketplace it seems. yelp says
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reviews on its site grew 41% to more than 42.5 million since a year ago. "even the slightest ding on a retailer matters. people look for 99% positive rating." but some businesses that have been burned with negative reviews are fighting back-- suing the writer for defamation. "i don't know if legal action isn't harsh. i think refuting the comment online would be more appropriate." the public participation project's evan mascagni says most of them are "meritless lawsuits that some individuals and businesses use as silence, intimidate and harass." the organization's website lists several states in red where laws protect consumers from retaliatory lawsuits. "the corporations may have the money to take people to court but we're going to have to view this through a new prism and it's going to get messy before it gets cleaner."
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but louie hickner who manages chicago's lucky cafe, just wants a chance to make it right. "i would rather control the situation in front of me than let someone go home and write what they think happened." some believed businesses can pay to prevent negative reviews from appearing. we contacted yelp which denied that saying, "there is no amount of money a business can pay to manipulate reviews."however, a business may contact a reviewer and subsequently, a review may be removed by the person who wrote it. paula deen's extortionist is sentenced to two years in prison. thomas george paculis threatened to release what he called "true and damning" information about deen unless he received 200-thousand
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dollars. he cut a plea deal with prosecutors. deen has been struggling to reboot her career since she admitted to using a racial slur. the celebrity chef has reportedly lost an estimated $12 million in canceled t-v, endoresement and book deals. habitat for humanity is urging americans to go green with their old jeans. a new initiative recycles blue jeans and converts them into an insulation method for new homes. hayden panettiere, a spokesperson for the campaign, explains the cause. " the average american has 7 pairs of jeans. so we have alot of denim going around. so habitat for humanity takes them and turns them into insulation for your house. so instead of having toxic fiberglass, you've got recycled denim, so it doesn't end up in a landfill." habitat for humanity says the denim insulation is 85% cotton, resists mold and mildew, and does not contain volatile chemicals. find out more at www dot blue jeans go green dot com.
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still to come: as congress prepares to debate the debt limit-- why lonf discussions might not work this time. plus what will happen if the federal reserve takes the training wheels off the economy. and, are activist investors taking over wall street and main street? thats later on. i'm going to pass chemistry, and i'll take it from there. i'm going to do what makes me happy. i'm going to work hard. be independent. live large. make the most of every opportunity. i knew i wanted to go to college. but figuring out how to pay for it? i didn't have a clue. the u.s. department of education has over $100 billion.
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and that's a lot of money. to help students pay for college. and the free application? you mean the fafsa. i did it online. it was easy. i'm never giving up on my goals. i will make a difference. i'm going to find out how to pay for college. i'm going to
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a countdown to crisis is underway. the nation reaches its debt limit of $16.69 trillion dollars in mid october. treasury secretary jack lew warns congress not to wait until the last minute to take action... because it could have a dire effect if congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in time. he says if u.s. can't pay its bills it will be devastating to the economy. president obama has said he won't negotiate. republicans want to try raising the limit to eliminate social programs. this afternoon the federal reserve is likely to reveal some form of tapering on it's bond buying program that has been stimulating the economy.. eric lascelles-- chief economist with rbc global asset management is on set with us this morning. and will tapering hurt the economy eric? > >well, i think it already is hurting the economy. it hasn't started yet but the market's expected it. you might have noticed interest rates and borrowing costs have already risen in a big way and so we do
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see some effects. we see for instance mortgage refinancing down 70% from when the taper talks started. so there are some hits. i don't think its quite enough though to derail this recovery. the recovery continues just not quite as eagerly as quickly as it has. > >should the fed do this slowly or just all in and move? > >my preference would have been not to do it at all quite yet but obviously i'm not running the show here abnd so they're keen to go. i think they should go slowly and quite frankly it sounds like they will go fairly slowly. they're buying 85 billion dollars of bonds a month. they'll probably chop 10 billion off that which is a notable number but still leaves a lot of stimulus out there. that's something that will taper off the full extent of this year and well into next year. > >you say it won't derail what's going on with the recovery process but will it hurt gdp in the long run? > >i think it will slow gdp in the short run. probably not in the long run though. and it's probably worth recognizing central banks don't get to set
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gdp growth in the lomg run. what they get to do is steal a little bit from the future and pull it to the present which is what they're doing right now. i don't think there's any question that the u.s. has some pretty bright prospects over that long run. > >it's just not economists in the u.s that are concerned about this tapering. people in china are comcerned, people in europe and some of the emerging markets. how will they be hit by this? > >we've already seen borrowing costs go up not just in the u.s. but indeed aroud the world. in emerging markets like china, we've actually seen their borrowing costs go up by more than in the u.s. so the hit is especially profound there. those countries have been more reliant than they thought on leverage and extra credit that emerged from the u.s. and as a result they're going to slow and in fact are already slowing. we've seen some little crises as well spring up in places like india and indonesia so they're feeling that also. > >knowing that this is likely to happen, would you change where you would park money? > >i think we're right to be fairly cautious in the emerging market investment world right now. so that's somewhere we're a bit shy on---particularly emerging market bonds. i happen to think the place to be is probably the stock market. the stock market still has some upside. it's still cheap we think. you avoid the hit that comes from rising bond yields as well. whether it's the u.s or other places like europe or japan, where those economies are also starting to sink into this recovery, i think there's some pretty exciting prospects. > >we'll leave on that note. thanks eric for stopping by. coming up.... the behind the scenes effect activist investors are having on the stock market...and, will buy the rumor sell the news ring true with today's news from the
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fed.. thats later on in chart talk.
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microsoft cuts deal with activist shareholder to avoid fight. shareholder fights heat up. activists aim for bigger targets. those are some of the recent headlines. the annual proxy season has brought them forth. but who are these activists actually fighting for? this question is addressed in an op-ed piece called offensive shareholder activists: heroes or villains? it was written by robert maybery, he's an independent global business advisor. you are leading a forum this friday on this very topic--a global forum. and what is it that these activists want? > >bill, what they want is financial change. they don't agitate for control of organizations like private equity. what they want is to extract and insure greater value---financial value---off the balance sheet for the shareholder and most importantly in the short term for themselves. > >what's happening actually? > >we've seen an interesting
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change in the platform. those shareholder activists---mostly the hedge funds---have had success. particularly mr. ackman of pershing square capital had a great run at canadian pacific railway and less so recently at jc penney. the reason in my view is---i have enormous respect for bill ackman but what shareholder activists need to understand is there's a big difference about agitating for financial change and actually bringing about change in these iconic organizations. jc penney would have taken 5 years to bring about meaningful, long-term, sustainable change. i believe bill and his colleagues underestimated that challenge. > >what about the board responsibilty? > >it begins and ends there and the reason why we are seeing such a surge in shareholder activism---particularly the offensive shareholder activists---is because leadership teams and management and boards are not necessarily spending enough constructive time with the defensive shareholder activists, the traditional mutual funds and pension funds who generally
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agitate with constructive change---for constructive change. > >you write also that if there was more communication among and between ceo and the board and the activist that maybe these problems would be obviated. > >absolutely. we need a mature response to this becoming a kindergarten spat at the old schoolyard. they need to actually converge and understand and agitate for the common good of all the stakeholders. > >robert maybery, thank you so much. > >my pleasure bill. in an attempt to avoid a hostile takeover --safeway has taken on a so-called "poison pill" plan. the grocery chain, which also owns dominicks stores, became aware that jana partners had acquired 6.2% of its outstanding stock. the activist investors say they have "strategic alternatives" for safeway. safeway's defensive plan kicks in if any investor acquires 10% of the company's stock. it would allow stock to be sold at a significant discount to existing shareholders. just ahead- more on the market going into today's major announcement from the fed. we'll be right back. chart talk is next.
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i wanted to be in the military since i was a kid.
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i served in the united states air force. i served a total of 16 years. i was deployed 13 times. on my second deployment four bombs hit my vehicle. and at 19 years old, that was the first time i ever saw somebody die. coming back, i was raging. i started having pretty horrible nightmares. i would wake up in middle of the night sweats. i started drinking a lot. i felt worthless. i guess i never recognized it in myself. eventually, one day i just walked into the va hospital and said i'd like to see somebody. don't suffer alone. you've got to find that link with somebody that will make you let it go. it all starts with going to the va. there's a whole community of veterans that just want to help you out. it's for the guys who couldn't come back, you owe it to them to live well. because they're not here with their families.
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trader dan deming of stutland equities joins us now for some chart talk. good morning dan. > >good morning angie. > >they have been buying this market going into the fed
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announcement today. ehat does that tell you? > >certainly right now the expectations in the market are as such that the fed possibly might taper just a little bit, maybe test the waters ever so slightly but by and large the expectations in the market place. the consensus is as long as that's the case the market could continue to go higher here. > >what do you think will happen after the announcement? is the market more likely to sell off immediately? > >i don't know about that angie. certainly buy the rumor sell the news is typical jargon down here on the floor and it has a tendency to come to fruition more often than not. you're seeing the s &p reclaim 1700. we saw the russel actually outperform the market yesterday---the small caps up now at new record highs trading around that 1066 area. overall you're still seeing some pretty good strength across the--- basically from the large caps to the small caps. the thing is, there is some serious resistance up there. the one thing we like to watch as far as
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the market leader, the financials have not confirmed this most recent runup. but by and large right now, you'd have to be happy about the fact that the market's been able to maintain these high end of the range as we roll into what could be a shift in fed policy. > >there is some resilience there to this market. > >there is right now. the expectations are that the market's gonna be able to handle it. we'll have to see how much of that is priced into the market tomorrow and i think that's really the key here as we get that announcement. is the market like you said gonna sell off on the news or not. right now you'd have to say that this is a pretty good resistance up above so unless there's some real momentum underneath there you're probably gonna get a little hesitation. > >good to have you on the show dan. thank you. > >thanks angie. that's a wrap for today. coming up tomorrow--- the new film that gave a shock to the box office..from all of us at first business..thank you for watching.
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